📊 Market Pulse: Murati’s Moonshot: Thinking Machines Lab Eyes $2B Seed Round at $10B Valuation

A new AI heavyweight may be forming before our eyes. Mira Murati, the former CTO and interim CEO of OpenAI, is seeking to raise $2 billion in seed capital for her stealth startup, Thinking Machines Lab, at a $10 billion valuation, according to multiple reports including Seeking Alpha.

If successful, this would be the largest seed round in history, eclipsing even the most well-funded AI launches to date. While the company has yet to unveil a product, it has quietly assembled a high-powered founding team—reportedly including key OpenAI veterans like Bob McGrew, Alec Radford, and John Schulman.

The startup is expected to focus on making AI more capable, customizable, and controllable, suggesting a potential challenge to incumbent AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind. And with a valuation that already places it ahead of most Series B and C-stage competitors, Thinking Machines is skipping the early innings and heading straight for the majors.

The move is also a strong signal that elite AI builders—especially those departing the OpenAI ecosystem—are commanding unprecedented capital and confidence, even in a more cautious 2025 venture climate.

🔍 Deeper Context & Insights

Murati is leveraging her stature as one of the most experienced operators in frontier AI to rapidly attract capital and talent. Her departure from OpenAI, and the immediate pursuit of a moonshot venture, speaks to both opportunity and potential tensions in the AI talent landscape.

What’s striking is not just the dollar amount, but the valuation multiple implied: with no product in market, Thinking Machines is being valued at 5x the total capital it's looking to raise, reflecting intense investor appetite for exposure to cutting-edge AI ventures helmed by insiders.

With rivals like OpenAI and xAI entrenched in cloud-scale infrastructure and LLM arms races, Murati’s startup may carve out a differentiated thesis—emphasizing smaller, more modular, and safer AI systems.

🧠 Top Takeaways:

1. $2B Seed Round Target would make Thinking Machines Lab the most highly capitalized seed-stage AI startup in history.

2. $10B Valuation reflects massive investor confidence despite the lack of public product or roadmap.

3. Founding Team includes top-tier talent from OpenAI, signaling a potent mix of research credibility and execution experience.

4. Strategic Implication: Could mark a shift toward "founder-first" investing in AI, where team pedigree eclipses traction or tech disclosure.

5. Capital Concentration Trend: Signals continued consolidation of resources into a few elite labs, raising questions about access, openness, and competition.

Thinking Machines Lab may be the next major contender in AI—if it can live up to its funding and its founder’s formidable track record. While the market waits to see what it actually builds, one thing is already clear: the era of billion-dollar AI bets is just getting started.